With the current condo markets in Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver making headlines, many people are wondering whether we’re headed for another housing crisis like 2008.
Having lived through the U.S. housing crash firsthand, I wanted to share my experience and explain why today’s Canadian housing market is fundamentally different.
Starting Over in a New Country
In 2008, my husband and I were living in Portland, Oregon. As Canadians living and working in the United States, we quickly discovered something that surprises many people—your credit history doesn’t follow you across the border.
Although we had established careers and a solid financial history in Canada, we essentially had to start from scratch in the U.S. It took Cam nearly seven years to build enough credit to qualify for a mortgage.
When we finally began house hunting in 2005, the market was incredibly competitive. Nearly every home received multiple offers, with buyers waiving inspections and other conditions just to compete. After 18 months of searching, we finally had an offer accepted on a newer home in a neighbourhood that many buyers overlooked. It wasn’t our dream location, but it was the nicest home we could afford, and we were thrilled to finally have a place to call our own.
Then Everything Changed
For the first few years, our decision seemed like a great one. Our home’s value increased by roughly 10% each year, and we felt fortunate to have purchased when we did.
Then the housing market collapsed.
Our neighbourhood happened to be located in one of the hardest-hit ZIP codes in the United States. Practically overnight, our home’s value fell by approximately 45%.
The change was devastating.
There were more than 280 foreclosures on our street alone. Families simply disappeared. House after house sat vacant.
For more than three years, only four homes on our street remained occupied. It felt like living in a ghost town.
Like many homeowners, we found ourselves owing far more than our home was worth. We could have walked away, as many people did, but we chose to stay, continue making our mortgage payments, and ride out the market.
It took another eight years before our home’s value recovered to what we originally paid.
Why Did the 2008 Crisis Happen?
One of the biggest reasons was the way mortgages were being approved.
In the United States, lending standards had become extremely relaxed. Many buyers purchased homes with little or no money down, and some qualified despite having poor credit or limited ability to repay the loan.
These mortgages were then bundled together into mortgage-backed securities and sold to investors around the world. As homeowners began defaulting and foreclosures increased, those investments rapidly lost value, contributing to a global financial crisis.
Many homeowners had very little equity invested in their homes. When property values fell below what they owed, some simply stopped making payments and walked away, leaving lenders with thousands of foreclosed properties.
How Is Canada Different?
While no housing market is immune to corrections, Canada’s mortgage system has historically been much more conservative.
Today’s borrowers generally must:
- Provide a minimum down payment.
- Meet strict income verification requirements.
- Pass a mortgage stress test using a qualifying rate that is higher than their contract rate.
- Demonstrate they can continue making payments if interest rates increase.
These safeguards are designed to reduce the risk of widespread mortgage defaults.
In addition, buying and selling a home in Canada involves significant costs, including property transfer taxes (where applicable), legal fees, appraisal costs, and other closing expenses. These costs encourage homeowners to think long term rather than viewing a home as a short-term investment.
What Can We Learn from 2008?
Housing markets move in cycles. Prices can rise, level off, and sometimes decline.
The lesson isn’t that real estate only goes up.
The lesson is to purchase a home you can comfortably afford, plan to own it for the long term, and avoid making decisions based solely on short-term market conditions.
Looking back, living through the 2008 housing crisis taught me that patience, careful financial planning, and maintaining a long-term perspective are some of the most valuable tools a homeowner can have.
If you’re wondering how today’s market conditions could affect your home purchase or mortgage renewal, I’d be happy to help you understand your options and create a plan that’s right for your financial goals.